SpaceX and OpenAI are racing toward blockbuster public listings that could redefine the next phase of the artificial intelligence investment boom, though analysts say the two companies represent sharply different propositions for investors despite their shared trillion-dollar ambitions.
The expected offerings have intensified comparisons between Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Sam Altman-led OpenAI, particularly after Musk’s recent courtroom defeat in his legal challenge against OpenAI’s corporate restructuring.
The rivalry between the two companies has deepened as both seek to position themselves at the center of the global AI economy, albeit through very different business models and competitive dynamics.
SpaceX is expected to pursue a valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion when it debuts on public markets next month under the ticker “SPCX.”
OpenAI, which was last valued privately at $852 billion, is also widely expected to seek a valuation above the trillion-dollar mark when it files for its long-anticipated listing.
Yet analysts note that the similarities may end there.
SpaceX seen as having stronger competitive moat
Unlike OpenAI, which faces growing competition in generative AI models, SpaceX has built what many analysts describe as a uniquely defensible business with few credible rivals.
The company generated about $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, according to reports, while OpenAI generated roughly $13.1 billion during the same period.
Both remain relatively small compared with existing trillion-dollar companies in the S&P 500, whose average annual revenues exceed $260 billion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
Still, investors appear willing to pay extraordinary premiums based on future growth expectations.
For SpaceX, much of the valuation case rests on the success of Starlink, its satellite broadband business that has become the dominant revenue engine for the company.
Starlink reportedly generated operating margins of 39% last year, supported by SpaceX’s vertically integrated launch infrastructure.
The company currently operates roughly 9,600 satellites in orbit, nearly 15 times larger than the next-biggest satellite operator, according to estimates from New Street Research.
“The rocket-launching business alone is a strong differentiator,” wrote Wall Street Journal columnist Dan Gallagher.
Although SpaceX’s rocket division swung to a loss last year due to heavy spending on the Starship rocket program, analysts say the company’s dominance in launch services remains largely intact.
SpaceX claims it has accounted for more than 80% of the world’s “mass to orbit” since 2023, while Roth Capital analyst Rohit Kulkarni recently described the company’s launch-market position as “monopolistic.”
Even technical setbacks in recent Starship tests are unlikely to materially alter that dominance, analysts say.
OpenAI faces rising competitive pressure
OpenAI, by contrast, is entering public markets while facing intensifying competition from rivals including Alphabet’s Google and AI startup Anthropic.
While ChatGPT remains among the most widely used AI applications globally, competing models such as Google’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude are rapidly gaining traction.
“OpenAI doesn’t have anything close to that kind of grip on its key market,” Gallagher wrote.
The challenge for OpenAI is compounded by the enormous cost of training and operating advanced AI models.
Analysts expect OpenAI’s computing and infrastructure expenses to consume most of its revenues for several more years, even as rivals such as Google continue funding AI investments through highly profitable advertising and cloud-computing businesses.
OpenAI’s long-term growth narrative still remains powerful, however, particularly given the global adoption of generative AI tools across enterprises and consumers.
But analysts say the company’s first-mover advantage is becoming harder to sustain as competitors narrow the technology gap.
IPO excitement collides with historical caution
The excitement surrounding both listings comes as Wall Street experiences renewed enthusiasm for mega-cap technology IPOs tied to artificial intelligence.
However, even as SpaceX is seen to trump OpenAI when it comes to having a monopolistic edge, historical performance data suggests investors should temper expectations.
A Reuters analysis of the 50 highest-valued IPOs over the past five years found that investors would have been better off buying an S&P 500 index fund roughly three-quarters of the time.
According to the analysis, an investor who bought shares at IPO prices across those offerings would have generated an average return of 27% through May 21, compared with gains of 53% for the S&P 500 over the same period.
Performance was even weaker for investors who bought stocks during their highly volatile first trading sessions.
“It’s difficult to make money unless you’re in the early stages of these things and buying these things before the IPO,” Dennis Dick, a proprietary trader at Triple D Trading, said in a Reuters report.
University of Florida professor Jay Ritter, widely regarded as one of the leading experts on IPO markets, also cautioned that richly valued listings tend to struggle over time.
At a projected $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX would trade at a price-to-sales ratio approaching 100, significantly above Nvidia’s ratio of roughly 24.
SpaceX also reportedly lost nearly $5 billion last year despite rapid revenue growth.
“Every one of these companies where investors are willing to pay a very high price-to-sales ratio has a compelling story for why the future potentially can be really bright,” Ritter said.
“But, you know, stuff could go wrong.”
As investors prepare for what could become the largest technology listings in history, Wall Street now appears caught between two competing forces optimism around the transformative power of AI and growing concern that soaring valuations may already be pricing in years of flawless execution.
The post SpaceX vs OpenAI: Which IPO could deliver bigger returns? appeared first on Invezz
